Service Plays Thursday 12/30/10

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The Rx.com Mod Team has created this Service Play sub-forum in order to supply an area for Rx Service Play Posters to expand upon their posting topics without creating a logjam in the main forum where the three principle threads are maintained..

Posters can track services here if they care to but we will need any trackers to do so in an accurate and civil manner. We did not create this area for posters to ridicule or bash any services..

You can also discuss who is hot and who is not. The general state of the pay for plays industry and any other subject or topic related to service plays.

You can also create individual threads about specific services and discuss them freely but civilly. Again bashing and abusive treatment of any services will not be tolerated.

Please remember, this forum is not here for regular posters who cap their own games to post ther daily plays. Please use our individual sport forums to post your plays. Professional cappers (those that sell plays) must remain in the Site Promotion Forum.

The Rx.com will not tolerate posters that post false records of any services they track. Please be truthful if you decide to track a particular service.

Lastly The Rx Moderators are appealing to you our everyday posters to report any promotional threads or posts that are made by services or individual touts. No links or contact information to an individual service will be allowed. Just the name of the service. Please report any threads or posts that are promotional attempts by services and touts to use this forum to promote themselves..

Posters can easily report a promotional post by using the triangular Report-a-Post Icon at the bottom left of all post boxes. The poster name of any poster who reports a post that is out of line will be kept strictly confidential.

I will leave this thread open for a month to take questions and do my best to answer them. I will check in daily but am off on Wednesday and Thursday.

I hope this additional Service Play Forum will satisfy those posters that would like to widen the scope of topics relating to service plays and the industry in general to have their own threads. Mods will be liberal as possible regarding topics but this forum was specifically created to allow you more freedom to express your ideas regarding service plays and related subject matter. No off topic threads will be allowed.

Thank you, wilheim




TheRX.com Policy on Posting Handicapper Plays:
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Some handicappers do not mind having their plays posted, If we are asked by any company to not let their information be posted here, we will comply with the request and remove the information if we see it.
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To all services and professional handicappers. I am only going to be editing posts where your copyrighted write-ups are involved. Please do not email me if someone simply posts so and so likes xyz team plus or minus so many points only.
Thank you, wilheim.......

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Dunkel

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 30
Time Posted: 10:00 a.m. EST (12/13)
Game 229-230: Army at SMU (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Army 80.438; SMU 80.417
Dunkel Line: Even; 56
Vegas Line: SMU by 8; 52
Dunkel Pick: Army (+8); Over

Game 231-232: Kansas State vs. Syracuse (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas State 90.647; Syracuse 85.421
Dunkel Line: Kansas State by 5; 42
Vegas Line: Pick; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas State; Under

Game 233-234: North Carolina vs. Tennessee (6:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: North Carolina 94.185; Tennessee 90.274
Dunkel Line: North Carolina by 4; 53
Vegas Line: North Carolina by 2; 50
Dunkel Pick: North Carolina (-2); Over

Game 235-236: Washington vs. Nebraska (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 91.303; Nebraska 102.224
Dunkel Line: Nebraska by 11; 47
Vegas Line: Nebraska by 14; 53
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+14); Under
 
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DCI BOWLS

Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl
at Dallas, TX
SMU 30, Army 20


New Era Pinstripe Bowl
at Bronx, NY
Syracuse 26, Kansas State 25


Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl
at San Diego, CA
Nebraska 29, Washington 16


Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl
at Nashville, TN
North Carolina 24, Tennessee 23
 
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PittViper

Thursday December 30th, 2010
BRONZE: ROT# 235 - 10:00pm - Nebraska -14 -105 (Nebraska by 18)
BRONZE: ROT# 234 - 6:30pm - North Carolina/Tennessee under 50.5 -115 (47 points)
 

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Stephen Nover

Second Biggest Bowl Release of the Year

50 DIME BOWL WINNER #3 IN A ROW

TENNESSEE
 

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Chris Jordan

Biggest Bowl Release of the Entire Season

400♦ Postseason Winner #3 in a Row

ANOTHER BOWL LINE MISTAKE!!!

TENNESSEE
 

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Andy Fanelli

1st Ever 75 DIME Bowl Game of My Career

Highest-Rated college football game of my career

NEBRASKA
 

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CKO

10 ARMY over *Smu
Late Score Forecast:
ARMY 24 - *Smu 23
Armed Forces Bowl at Dallas, TX


10 *TENNESSEE over North Carolina
Late Score Forecast:
*TENNESSEE 34 - North Carolina 26
Music City Bowl at Nashville, TN


NINE-RATED GAME: KANSAS STATE (Pick ‘em) over Syracuse (Pinstripe Bowl, Dec. 30)—Wildcats more versatile on offense; own important bowl coaching
experience in HC Bill Snyder
 

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Pointwise Newsletter


KANSAS STATE (7-5) vs SYRACUSE (7-5)
PROPHECY: SYRACUSE 24 - Kansas State 20 RATING: 6
 

SMU (7-6) vs ARMY (6-6)
PROPHECY: Smu 31 - ARMY 27 RATING: 6


NORTH CAROLINA (7-5) vs TENNESSEE (6-6)
PROPHECY: TENNESSEE 27 - North Carolina 25 RATING: 6
 

NEBRASKA (10-3) vs WASHINGTON (6-6)
PROPHECY: NEBRASKA 38 - Washington 13 RATING: 1
 

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Goldsheet

SMU 25 - Army 22
Kansas State 23 - Syracuse 20 
*Nebraska 40 - Washington 20
TENNESSEE 32 - North Carolina 27
 

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Winning Points

ARMED FORCES BOWL (Dallas, TX)
SMU over ARMY by 10
S.M.U. 31-21

PINSTRIPE BOWL (Bronx, NY)
SYRACUSE over KANSAS STATE by 3
SYRACUSE 24-21

MUSIC CITY BOWL (Nashville, TN)
TENNESSEE over NORTH CAROLINA by 3
TENNESSEE 27-24

HOLIDAY BOWL (San Diego, CA)
NEBRASKA over WASHINGTON by 11
NEBRASKA 31-20
 

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Sports Reporter

ARMED FORCES BOWL
Gerald Ford Stadium – Dallas, TX
SMU over ARMY by 3
SMU, 27-24

PINSTRIPE BOWL
Yankee Stadium – Bronx, NY
BEST BET
KANSAS STATE over SYRACUSE by 14
KANSAS STATE, 34-20

MUSIC CITY BOWL
LP Field – Nashville, TN
NORTH CAROLINA over TENNESSEE by 8

NORTH CAROLINA, 28-20

HOLIDAY BOWL
Qualcomm Stadium – San Diego, CA
NEBRASKA over WASHINGTON by 9
NEBRASKA, 32-23
 
 

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CHUCK SIPPL

KANSAS STATE (Pick ‘em) over Syracuse (Pinstripe Bowl in NYC) 12:20 PM Pacific
TENNESSEE (+2) over North Carolina (Music City Bowl in Nashville) 3:30 PM Pacific
 

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StatSystems Sports, Armed Forces Bowl Report, Thursday 12/30/10

STAN THE MAN'S STAT/SYSTEMS REPORT 12/30
NCAA COLLEGE FOOTBALL
INFO WORTH BETTING ON ONE PAGE EACH DAY
_______________________________________


*** ARMED FORCES BOWL ***

ARMY VS. SMU
Gerald J Ford Stadium - Dallas, TX
Kickoff: 12:00 p.m. EDT Line: SMU -7 O/U 52
------------------------------------------------------
Army finds itself back in the postseason for the first time in 16 years, and the Black Knights will take on the SMU Mustangs in the Armed Forces Bowl at Ford Stadium. Army is playing in its first bowl game since 1996 and only the second since 1988. The Black Knights did fade a bit down the stretch, dropping three of their final four contests to close out the regular season. They also lost their ninth consecutive showdown against Navy earlier this month, although the game was much more competitive than the final score (31-17) would indicate, due largely to a fumble just before the half that Navy returned for a touchdown.

Meanwhile, SMU will have the luxury of playing in its home stadium for this matchup, where the team went 4-2 this year. SMU has reached the postseason for the second straight year after topping Nevada in the 2009 Sheraton Hawaii Bowl, 45-10. The Mustangs won the Conference USA West Division with a 6-2 league mark this year, though they went just 1-4 outside of conference play. In the C-USA Championship, SMU fell to UCF by a 17-7 final. The Mustangs also faced Navy earlier this year in Annapolis, as they rallied from a 14-0 halftime deficit to claim a 28-21 victory. Army has won both prior meetings in the all-time series between these two schools, although these teams have not met since 1967. This will be the eighth installment of the Armed Forces Bowl, which saw Air Force knock off Houston by a 47-20 final in last year's game.

Since taking over as Army's head coach following the 2008 season, Ellerson has made his triple-option attack a staple at West Point. The Black Knights will have to execute it very well in order to keep SMU and its dangerous offense off the field. Army averages a robust 256 rushing yards per game, which ranks 10th in the nation. Like most option teams, the passing game has taken a backseat as the Black Knights rank 120th in that department (82 ypg). While they'll scheme a pass play or two into the weekly gameplan to keep defenses honest, for the most part the Black Knights are perfectly content to move the ball down the field a few yards at a time. It's a formula that works as long as they can avoid turnovers, which they've done throughout the season by ranking seventh nationally in turnover margin.

However, perhaps the costliest turnover of the year came during a pivotal moment against Navy. Trailing 17-7 late in the first half with the ball on the Navy two-yard line, Army quarterback Trent Steelman had the ball stripped near the goal line and returned 98 yards the other way for a touchdown. The result: instead of cutting the deficit to 17-14, Army went into the locker room trailing 24-7 at halftime and was never able to recover. It was an unfortunate moment for Steelman, who has been as integral to the team's success as anybody. He threw for 128 yards and two touchdowns in the game, while also rushing for 74 yards to help the Black Knights out-rush Navy 209-139. On the season, Steelman has rushed for 694 yards and a team-best 11 touchdowns in addition to his seven passing TDs. Fullback Jared Hassin tops the squad with 931 rushing yards to go along with his nine TDs.

Army's defense has been susceptible to the run at times this season, but the Knights are solid against the pass, ranking 23rd nationally with 190.5 passing yards allowed per tilt. They also rank 27th in total defense (332 ypg) and 57th in scoring (25.2 ppg). Overall, Army's D turned in a very solid effort against Navy by bottling up the Mids' option game and coming away with four takeaways from quarterback Ricky Dobbs. However, when they needed a stop most in the fourth quarter, the Black Knights allowed Navy to grind down the clock with a 13-play drive that chewed up nine minutes and made it a 31-10 game with 5:44 to play. With coach Ellerson having spent the past few weeks hammering home 60 minutes of football, it will be interesting to see how his team responds if a similar situation presents itself in this matchup.

Linebacker Stephen Anderson, as he has done so often throughout the season, led Army with 12 tackles against Navy, also registering a half-sack, a forced fumble and fumble recovery. Anderson is the heart and soul of the unit, as he paces the team with 94 tackles, including 10.5 for loss. He has also broken up a half-dozen passes and forced four fumbles on the year. Josh McNary has notched a team-best 9.5 sacks to go along with three forced fumbles. In the secondary, Donovan Travis has come away with a team-high five interceptions while also ranking third with 53 tackles. All three of those players will need to bring their A-games if the Black Knights are to slow down SMU's potent offense.

While Army will look to keep things on the ground with the option game, SMU's spread passing attack under head coach June Jones will present quite a contrast in styles. The Mustangs are littered with playmakers on that side of the ball, including three first-team All-Conference picks. One of those players is left tackle Kelvin Beachum, who has started all 13 games this season to anchor a line that has paved the way for a school-record 5,391 yards of total offense. Another is running back Zach Line, whose 1,391 rushing yards this season trails only Eric Dickerson (1981, '82) in school history. Line is the C-USA leader with 107 yards per game on the ground. At wideout, senior Aldrick Robinson has amassed 1,225 receiving yards this season, making him the only receiver in school history with two 1,000-yard seasons. His 13 touchdown catches are also a new SMU record, as are his seven straight games with a TD grab.

In that loss to UCF in the C-USA Championship, all of the Mustangs' offensive weapons went missing and the result was a season-low seven points scored. Quarterback Kyle Padron has had a fine season for SMU, but in that game he was sacked five times and intercepted twice, finishing with 220 yards on 18-of-34 passing. The team's lone touchdown didn't come until the fourth quarter on a 22-yard pass from Padron to Robinson, but the next two possessions resulted in an interception and a turnover on downs to end any threat. On the season, Padron is averaging 271.2 passing yards per game and has thrown 29 touchdowns against 12 interceptions. While Robinson has accounted for nearly half of those TD passes, Padron does have some other solid options in the passing game. Cole Beasley has also gone over the 1,000-yard mark (1,036) and actually leads the team with 84 catches. Darius Johnson ranks second on the team with 69 catches, as he and Beasley have combined for 11 TDs.

SMU's defense has seen the triple-option already this season, so there shouldn't be many surprises there. As always, gap discipline and each player knowing their assignments are the keys to stopping it. "The triple-option is a very difficult offense to prepare for," coach Jones said. "I'm glad we have time to prepare for it. We also played against it at Navy. This will be a better situation for us. I know (Ellerson) very well. He will have some new little wrinkles and some little things by the time we get to game day."

SMU only gave up 311 yards and two trips to the red zone in the title game against UCF, but the Knights were able to keep drives alive by converting 7- of-13 first downs. Charged with stopping that trend will be linebackers Taylor Reed (133 tackles) and Pete Fleps (116), the top two tacklers for SMU. Ja'Gared Davis has notched 82 tackles from his linebacker spot, including a team-high 15 for loss and nine sacks. He has also scored TDs on a fumble return and a blocked field goal return, and the Mustangs could certainly use a big play or two from him. Defensive end Taylor Thompson (32 tackles, 4.5 sacks) will need to set the edge in SMU's 3-4 scheme in order to limit big gains against the option.

SMU has played a fairly tough schedule, with seven of its opponents this season earning bowl bids. The Mustangs also placed five players on the All- Conference USA first team, the most for the program since 1984. That '84 season was also the last time they went to bowl games in consecutive seasons, highlighting a significant turnaround for the program under third-year coach Jones.

• PREGAME NOTES
-------------------------
This year’s troops from West Point are certainly more resilient than past Army squads: even though the Cadets enter on a two-game losing skid, they bounced back from an embarrassing 27-3 whipping by Notre Dame to outgain Navy 337-325 (rushed 54 times for 209 yards) in a season-ending loss to the Midshipmen. Meanwhile, the Ponies limp into their second consecutive bowl after self-destructing against UCF in the CUSA Championship game. SMU actually won the stats in the 17-7 setback but failed to dent the scoreboard until nearly six minutes had elapsed in the 4th quarter.

Our database sides with the infantry in today’s skirmish, pointing out that bowl favorites that won a bowl game SU as a dog of more than 6 points the previous year are just 7-16 ATS and that military bowlers overall stand 23-10 ATS. The Mustangs can claim no such reinforcements from the ATS archives, posting a dreadful 0-8 ATS mark as chalk versus a foe off back-to-back SU losses. And despite its relative success since the arrival of head coach June Jones, SMU has beaten only four out of thirteen bowlers straight up over the past two seasons. NOTE: Army is 11-1 ATS in games played in the state of Texas.

*STAN'S FORECASTER - SMU by 5; O/U 51.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - SMU -2
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - SMU -3.2
___________________________________

• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--SMU is 23-43 ATS (-24.3 Units) after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game since 1992.
The average score was SMU 17.9, OPPONENT 30.2 - (Rating = 4*)

--ARMY is 9-28 ATS (-21.8 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
The average score was ARMY 16.4, OPPONENT 30.5 - (Rating = 4*)

--ARMY is 16-32 ATS (-19.2 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992.
The average score was ARMY 18.2, OPPONENT 30.5 - (Rating = 3*)

• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
----------------------------------------------------
--SMU is 31-13 UNDER (+16.7 Units) after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses since 1992.
The average score was SMU 19.9, OPPONENT 29.0 - (Rating = 3*)

--SMU is 28-12 UNDER (+14.8 Units) after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread since 1992.
The average score was SMU 21.0, OPPONENT 28.1 - (Rating = 3*)

• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--SMU is 7-0 against the 1rst half line (+7.0 Units) versus good rushing teams - averaging >=200 rushing yards/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SMU 16.2, OPPONENT 6.7 - (Rating = 3*)

--ARMY is 15-31 against the 1rst half line (-19.1 Units) as an underdog of 2 to 6 points vs. the first half line since 1992.
The average score was ARMY 8.4, OPPONENT 15.4 - (Rating = 3*)

--ARMY is 10-24 against the 1rst half line (-16.4 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
The average score was ARMY 8.0, OPPONENT 17.6 - (Rating = 3*)

• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
------------------------------------------------------------------
--SMU is 10-1 UNDER (+8.9 Units) the 1rst half total after playing 2 straight conference games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was SMU 14.2, OPPONENT 10.9 - (Rating = 3*)

--SMU is 9-0 UNDER (+9.0 Units) the 1rst half total after a bye week since 1992.
The average score was SMU 10.6, OPPONENT 9.4 - (Rating = 3*)

--SMU is 7-0 UNDER (+7.0 Units) the 1rst half total in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SMU 12.0, OPPONENT 9.5 - (Rating = 3*)

--SMU is 7-0 UNDER (+7.0 Units) the 1rst half total in road games in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was SMU 10.9, OPPONENT 12.7 - (Rating = 3*)

• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
----------------------------------------------
--PLAY UNDER - All teams where the first half total is 25 to 28 (SMU) - excellent offensive team (>=6.2 YPP) against a team with a poor defense (5.6 to 6.2 YPP).
(59-32 since 1992.) (64.8%, +23.8 units. Rating = 3*)

The average first half total posted in these games was: 26.8
The average first half score in these games was: Team 16.3, Opponent 9 (Total first half points scored = 25.2)

The situation's record this season is: (8-11).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (25-16).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (33-25).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (51-28).
_____________________________________________

Stan 'The Man has Turned-Up the Heat on the Gridiron with his RED~HOT 69-25-4, (73.4%) ATS Run, along with his impressive 132-56-2 (70.2%) mark for the season, in MLB action! But most Importantly, Yours Truly has delivered the cash in Forty-Two of the last Forty-Six, and in Seventy-Six of the last Eighty-One Weeks, Dating back to Last Season!

After taking most of the week off, “The Man Continued to Roll with his 'ROCK~SOLID' Record (40-13-2, 75.5%) in CFB Action on Friday, dishing out yet another Huge Top *5-Star Winner (Tulsa +10.5) that was back by this ‘Incredible Super Situational System' - PLAY ON: A Conference Championship/Bowl team (not a favorite of 4+ points or underdog of more than 14 points) off allowing 22+ points in each of its last 5 games vs. a non-Independent opponent.

This Stat/Systems Sports Super Situational System has a record of 17-0 ATS, 100% (with the Tulsa Golden Hurricane forcing six turnovers to upend #24 Hawaii, 62-35, in the Hawaii Bowl) covering the spread by an average of 27.4 points per game since 1999. The straight up record for this system is a solid 14-3 winning by an average of 17.3 points per game.
______________________________
 

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alphacapper has bowl releases out for today. Anybody got one? Been hot this year hitting around 70% and nailed a parlay on Tuesday night with the Vikings and the Under! Here are his past results of late from his site.


Event
W / L
Pick
Results
Carolina @ Pittsburgh 23Dec10
W
Pittsburgh: -14 1/2
Pittsburgh 27 - Carolina 3
Navy Vs San Diego St 23Dec10
W
San Diego St: -3
San Diego St 35 - Navy 14
Tulsa Vs Hawaii 24Dec10
W
Over 73
Tulsa 62 - Hawaii 35
Dallas @ Arizona 25Dec10
L
Dallas: -6 1/2
Dallas 26 - Arizona 27
Tennessee @ Kansas City 26Dec10
L
Tennessee: 5
Tennessee 14 - Kansas City 34
Florida International Vs Toledo 27Dec10
W
FLU: -1 FLU 34 - Toledo 32
New Orleans @ Atlanta 27Dec10
W
New Orleans: +1
New Orleans 17 - Atlanta 14
Minnesota @ Philadelphia 28Dec 10
Parlay
W
W
Minnesota: +14 1/2
Under: 44 1/2
Minnesota 24 - Philadelphia 14
Score Total: 38
L.A. Lakers @ San Antonio (NBA) 28Dec10
L
Lakers: +3 1/2
L.A. Lakers 82 - San Antonio 97
Missouri Vs Iowa 28Dec10
W
Iowa: +2 1/2
Missouri 24 - Iowa 27
West Virginia Vs NC State 28Dec10
L
West Virginia: -3
West Virginia 7 - NC State 23
 
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BANG THE BOOK

Thursday's Best Bowl Bets

Holiday Bowl: Washington Huskies vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers (-14, 52.5)

There is only one rematch from a regular season duel in the bowl betting season this year, and this is it in the Holiday Bowl. The Washington Huskies were absolutely demolished by the Nebraska Cornhuskers earlier this year at home, and now they play on a neutral field at Qualcomm Stadium in Holiday Bowl betting action.

This is the first time that the Huskies have been in a bowl game in quite some time, and though this one really doesn’t mean a heck of a lot to the program, all eyes are going to be fixated on QB Jake Locker. Locker has all of the tools to succeed at the next level, but his stats really don’t warrant being a first round draft choice, particularly after completing just four passes against Nebraska earlier this year. He threw for 2,209 yards and completed just 56.6 percent of his passes. Locker had 17 TDs against nine picks, but he only averaged 7.0 yards per pass this year and really didn’t show that he can stretch the field. WR Jermaine Kearse averaged a healthy 17.0 yards per reception and had 56 catches for 954 yards and a dozen TDs on the campaign. However, the key is going to be keeping the ball moving on the ground with RB Chris Polk. Polk rumbled for 1,238 yards and eight scores. It took three wins in the final three games of the season just to make it to a bowl game, and though there were some impressive wins in and amongst a relatively difficult schedule, there was still no excuse to allow 31.2 points per game, ranking No. 94 in the country.

Big Red averaged 416.2 yards per game this year, 261.5 yards of which came on the ground. Freshman QB Taylor Martinez had a great game against these Huskies and was thought to be a Heisman Trophy contender after tearing them apart. He threw for 1,578 yards and rushed for 942 more, accounting for 21 total TDs. RB Roy Helu had a 300+ yard game and is now the holder of the best single game on the ground in Nebraska history. He had 1,211 yards and 11 scores on the campaign. RB Rex Burkhead had 912 yards and seven scores as well, and this trio can legitimately become the second team in the history of college football betting action to each have 1,000 yards on the ground. Leading receiver WR Niles Paul is probably out of the lineup in the Holiday Bowl, which doesn’t leave a 500 yard receiver for Martinez to throw to. Still, the Black Shirts defense always is and always will be the key for the Huskers, even as they prepare for the Big Ten next year. Nebraska held teams to 294.8 yards and 17.2 points per game this year.

Washington just isn’t ready to compete in this game. The Huskies aren’t nearly as good as the team on the other side of the field, and though Locker just has to play better than he did the first time around, he isn’t going to be beating the Cornhuskers any time soon. U-Dub should get rocked in Holiday Bowl betting action on Thursday.

HOLIDAY BOWL PICK: Nebraska Cornhuskers -14
 

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